731
FXUS62 KTBW 040050
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR/OBS
AND GUIDANCE, OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE DECENT SHAPE WITH THE LATEST
THINKING, AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE E GULF
ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY
INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STALLED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY WET PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY WE WILL SWITCH
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW REGIMES WILL BRING SOME EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO THE WEST COAST BEFORE STORMS MOVE INLAND INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THIS REGIME SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS, WITH VCSH LIKELY
THROUGH THE CYCLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF VCTS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION REDEVELOPS AND EXPANDS
ONSHORE. EVENTUAL AMDS FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN PERIODS OF GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY E/SE TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECTED WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
START TO PUSH AWAY ON FRIDAY BRING WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY
NEXT SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE TYPICALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COMING INTO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF WEST FLORIDA WILL KEEP
US UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AND GIVE US WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WHICH WILL HELP THE CURRENT
DROUGHT WE ARE IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 82 76 90 / 70 90 80 80
FMY 72 85 75 92 / 70 90 50 70
GIF 72 83 73 89 / 50 90 60 80
SRQ 72 83 74 89 / 70 90 80 70
BKV 72 84 69 90 / 50 90 70 80
SPG 74 82 76 88 / 70 90 80 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/DELERME
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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