069
FXUS62 KTBW 040735
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE STATE. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A COUPLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM, LIFTING FROM SW TO NE IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW.
OVERNIGHT ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLUMN IS QUITE SATURATED, WITH A PWAT VALUE OF JUST UNDER 2
INCHES. THIS PUTS TODAY'S MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL SETUP (AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENHANCING
PARCEL ASCENT, MODEST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE SURFACE
TROUGH, AND VEERING PROFILE), CONDITIONS FAVOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUING AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BE
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS SUGGEST THAT
A SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FROM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER TO A
WSW DIRECTION IN RESPONSE, KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION IN THE FETCH
OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS A PERIOD OF REPRIEVE OVER THE WEEKEND FROM THIS SOGGIER
PATTERN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. RATHER THAN CLOUDY,
RAINY DAYS, MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
TRANSITIONING INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW REMAINS OUT OF
THE WEST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO OUR REGION THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE RAIN
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE NOT AN EXACT COPY OF THIS WEEK'S
SETUP, IT DOES LOOK SIMILAR. SO ULTIMATELY A SIMILAR OUTCOME OF
CLOUDY, RAINY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
VICINITY CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE CYCLE,
INITIALLY SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD INCLUDING EMBEDDED STORMS LATE
MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL
BE FAVORED FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION, THERE REMAINS SOME INDICATION THAT VFR MAY RETURN LATE
EVENING TOWARD THE END OF THE CYCLE. WINDS REMAIN E/SE INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AND INCREASING TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SPINS IN THE NE GULF. SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
CONDITIONS, DRIVEN BY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS
WSW FLOW CONTINUES, EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. QUIETER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
NO CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH A SOGGY AND HUMID PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 76 89 78 / 80 70 80 40
FMY 85 74 92 76 / 80 50 80 30
GIF 82 73 89 74 / 80 60 80 30
SRQ 83 74 89 76 / 80 70 80 40
BKV 84 69 90 70 / 80 70 80 30
SPG 82 76 87 78 / 80 80 80 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY/HURT
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