586
FXUS62 KTBW 041850
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WITH THE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (REGIME 4/5), EXCEPT
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW EACH DAY WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING CAUSING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, BUT A SHOWER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT BACK TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION WHERE GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS COULD OCCUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WATERS DRIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH QUIETER MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 79 91 / 50 50 20 40
FMY 74 91 76 93 / 30 40 20 50
GIF 74 91 75 92 / 40 60 30 70
SRQ 75 89 76 90 / 50 40 20 30
BKV 69 91 71 92 / 50 60 20 40
SPG 77 88 79 88 / 50 40 20 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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