000
FXUS62 KTBW 050101
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
901 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
FEW CHANGES MADE TO ALIGN GRIDS WITH LATEST RADAR/OBS AND TRENDS
OF REDUCED EVENING RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS/FEW EMBEDDED STORMS LOOK
TO REDEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST AND
ONSHORE INTO THE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOWER OVERALL
POPS AND COVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST WITH THE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (REGIME 4/5), EXCEPT
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW EACH DAY WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
VFR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM OR TWO ON THURSDAY BRINGING A LOW CHANCE
OF RESTRICTIONS. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD APPEARS THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
HOWEVER GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOCUS AWAY FROM
THE COAST SPARING COASTAL TERMINALS FROM HIGHER IMPACT POTENTIAL.
WINDS GENERALLY SE 5-10, SHIFTING TO ONSHORE/SSW IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WATERS DRIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH QUIETER MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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