308
FXUS62 KTBW 050652
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
252 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE. PCPW VALUE ON
THE TBW 5/00Z SOUNDING WAS 2.11 INCHES...AND THIS WILL DROP INTO
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. ALSO, HAVE DROPPED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST MAY BE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION EACH DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTH AND
SET-UP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD
CREATE ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHICH WOULD PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE...MEANING HIGHEST POPS INLAND EACH DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD AID IN HOLDING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE IMPACTING PIE/SRQ/TPA, ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE MARINE WATERS. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY
IMPACT ANY TERMINAL WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, PREDOMINATELY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 78 91 79 / 50 30 40 10
FMY 91 75 93 77 / 50 20 30 20
GIF 91 74 93 75 / 50 30 40 20
SRQ 90 75 91 77 / 50 30 40 10
BKV 90 70 92 71 / 60 30 40 10
SPG 87 78 88 79 / 50 30 40 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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