155
FXUS62 KTBW 051735
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
RECENT KTBW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED ECHOES ACROSS SWFL
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST THIS MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THUS, HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS BUT LATEST
CAMS DO SHOW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOST FAVORED AREAS BEING INLAND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL, ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAL IN THE REGION SO THIS MAY ENCOURAGE
SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ANY DEEPER CONVECTION MATERIALIZE WHICH IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, MUCH LESS PERCEPTION AND CLOUD COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY
WILL YIELD NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE AROUND
SEASONAL AROUND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE REGION, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE. PCPW VALUE ON
THE TBW 5/00Z SOUNDING WAS 2.11 INCHES...AND THIS WILL DROP INTO
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. ALSO, HAVE DROPPED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST MAY BE ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION EACH DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTH AND
SET-UP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD
CREATE ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHICH WOULD PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE...MEANING HIGHEST POPS INLAND EACH DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD AID IN HOLDING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST COMBINED WITH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN INTERIOR AREAS, THOUGH THIS IS A
LOW CHANCE OVERALL SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KLAL IN 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, PREDOMINATELY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 79 91 / 20 40 10 40
FMY 75 93 77 93 / 20 30 20 40
GIF 74 93 75 93 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 75 91 77 90 / 20 30 10 40
BKV 70 92 71 92 / 40 40 10 40
SPG 78 88 79 88 / 20 30 10 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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