147
FXUS62 KTBW 060003
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
803 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY IN INTERIOR AREAS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS EVENING IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG SO THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS
MATERIALIZE, THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAT OCCUR GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ALOFT BUT THIS POTENTIAL
WOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT MOST AND GENERALLY ONLY FOR INTERIOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN DIMINISH
AFTER AROUND 9-10 PM WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN
RECENT DAYS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAL AND BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH TX. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THUS, THIS SHOULD FAVOR LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS BEFORE
ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND LATER IN THE DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR AREAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT, AND THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE
SAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DECIDED TO LOWER POPS QUITE A
BIT COMPARED TO NBM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS GENERALLY
RANGING IN THE 40%-60% RANGE IN INTERIOR AREAS AND 20%-40% RANGE FOR
COASTAL ARES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SAL IS ALSO FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AROUND MID WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SO A MORE DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD OCCUR WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FAVORED
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. IN ADDITION, HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO INCREASE BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HEAT SAFETY WITH
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK RANGING FROM ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT SO HEAT
SAFETY PRACTICES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 79 91 / 20 40 10 30
FMY 75 93 76 93 / 20 30 10 50
GIF 74 93 75 93 / 20 50 10 50
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 20 30 10 30
BKV 70 92 71 92 / 40 40 10 30
SPG 78 88 79 89 / 20 30 20 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...DELERME/GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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