451
FXUS62 KTBW 260051
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
851 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
WITH THE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TUTT
FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA, SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED
IMPRESSIVE HAIL CORES ALOFT EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS WAS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED AROUND PINELLAS COUNTY WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
HAIL REACHING THE SURFACE RANGING IN SIZE FROM PEA TO QUARTERS
AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIED IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND INTERACTION WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LATEST
RADAR STILL SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND AS WELL
IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONDITIONS THEN
DRY OVER LAND AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, THOUGH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS MARINE ZONES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING IN THE LOW/MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT YOU CAN SEE SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA WILL BE PUSHING OVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW BOTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
PUSHES AWAY ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BRINING
FOR THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS AND TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST.
BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE PUSHED AWAY AND THE
RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS BEING INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE STATE. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO STICK AROUND FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT SOME TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO BUT PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTERWARDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z/20Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF AND EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW START TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION AND
BRING SOME STRONG STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE WEST
COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS MORE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 30 70 50 70
FMY 74 90 75 93 / 40 70 50 70
GIF 74 93 74 92 / 10 80 30 70
SRQ 74 90 74 91 / 40 60 50 70
BKV 71 93 71 92 / 30 60 40 70
SPG 78 90 77 88 / 40 60 50 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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