554
FXUS62 KTBW 261246
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
846 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE THE LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN OUR TYPICAL SUMMER DAY, RUNNING
AROUND 1.5 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WE DO HAVE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PENINSULA WITH RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THIS COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 846 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT MAY SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FOR A SHORT TIME AT SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
AN U/L LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
DAYS, THIS WILL AID IN HOLDING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, COLLIDING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
LATE IN THE DAY TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THIS WILL CREATE THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE U/L LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A RESIDUAL POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT MAY
HOLD OVER THE REGION CREATING ANOTHER DAY FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BREAK THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL PATTERN
AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE INTERIOR. THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE THIS RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW. THIS WILL AGAIN CREATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SUFFICIENTLY TO DECREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW, THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS EACH DAY. GRADIENT MAY INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ABOVE CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 76 91 78 / 70 50 50 40
FMY 92 74 92 76 / 70 50 60 30
GIF 93 74 93 75 / 70 30 60 30
SRQ 91 74 90 76 / 70 50 50 40
BKV 94 70 93 72 / 70 40 50 30
SPG 89 77 88 78 / 70 50 50 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...FLANNERY
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