880
FXUS62 KTBW 270039
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
839 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
A BIT LESS ACTIVE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY LESS COOL TEMPS ALOFT TEMPERING INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH WEAKER WINDS ALOFT REDUCING SHEAR, HOWEVER A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO A FEW REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY OBSERVED GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
INSTANCES OF MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWER MOVING
STORMS. ACTIVITY REMAINS ONGOING IN THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH AROUND SARASOTA AND VENICE AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF
STANDING/PONDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AREAS, BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST GRIDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO POP UP HERE AND THERE THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING. OVERALL COVERAGE NOT THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME THOUGH AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE
RATHER COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -9C ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE LOCATED, THEN ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT WEST
OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE COASTAL AREAS TOWARD MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (REGIME 4) WILL
GET UNDERWAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH FAVORS THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AS WELL AS INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE AXIS. HOWEVER, OVER THE
WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
KEEPING SOME RATHER COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SOME UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINK UP WITH THIS LOW WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NATURE COAST DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE EACH DAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN OF CONVECTION AFFECTING TPA/PIE/SRQ
THROUGH 01-02Z WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT, BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT AND VFR RETURNING TONIGHT. VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER, SOME SIGNAL OF LATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXISTS
FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS PER RECENT GUIDANCE, THAT MAY REQUIRE AMDS
FOR INCLUSION SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING
COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER W/SW FLOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE IMPACTS FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER
21Z OR SO... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PGD/FMY/RSW FOR LATE CYCLE
TRENDS AS SOME INTERIOR CONVECTION MAY WORK BACK TOWARD THE COAST
AFTER THAT TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
EASTERLY FLOW EARLY TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST OFF THE LAND THIS EVENING. THEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST THE BETTER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, EXCEPT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 79 91 / 40 50 30 60
FMY 74 92 77 94 / 50 60 20 60
GIF 74 94 75 93 / 30 70 30 70
SRQ 74 90 77 91 / 50 50 30 50
BKV 70 92 72 92 / 40 50 30 60
SPG 77 89 79 88 / 50 50 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA/CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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