794
FXUS62 KTBW 271136
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
736 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
TODAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM A DOMINANT ESE TO A DOMINANT WSW
FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR A SHIFT TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, TODAY IS NOT QUITE THAT SIMPLE.
EARLY CONVECTION OFF THE SWFL COAST IS MOVING INLAND, BUT WEAKENING.
AS SUCH, A WINDOW FOR MORE IMPACTFUL THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LATER
TODAY FOR KPGD, KFMY, AND KRSW AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS, WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT FOR THE DAYS
TO COME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AN U/L LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
AN OVERALL WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SQUEEZED BETWEEN
AN U/L RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
A L/W TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
THE TROUBLE LIES IN THE SUBTLE DETAILS EACH DAY. WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO
SLOWLY PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.
COMBINATION OF U/L SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L LOW...DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS MORNING, PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND AND INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHEST POPS INLAND.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS, CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL, WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. SPC HAS THE INTERIOR IN A
MARGINAL RISK (CATEGORY 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
AND DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW/SLOW STORM MOVEMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER DAY OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING
INLAND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHEST POPS INLAND. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH STORMS IN THAT AREA MOST LIKELY
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. ALSO, OUTFLOWS OVER THE INTERIOR MAY PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SINK A BIT SOUTH AND ONSHORE WEST FLOW
BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA. THIS LENDS
ITSELF TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH PUSH ONSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY TRAINING OF CELLS CAN LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AND BY MID WEEK, THERE WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED U/L SUPPORT FROM THE TAIL END OF THE L/W TROUGH DROPPING
DOWN OVER THE REGION. PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH
WOULD HELP ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS EACH DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO NEAR
CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 92 78 / 50 30 50 40
FMY 92 75 94 75 / 60 40 60 30
GIF 93 75 94 75 / 60 40 70 40
SRQ 89 75 92 76 / 50 30 40 40
BKV 92 72 93 72 / 50 30 50 40
SPG 89 78 89 78 / 50 30 50 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
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