946
FXUS62 KTBW 280015
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
OUTFLOW AND FROM EARLIER INLAND CONVECTION CONTINUES ADVANCING
WEST ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING,
HAVING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN ITS WAKE, CURRENTLY
MOST ACTIVE IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE BEFORE GENERALLY WINDING DOWN LATER IN THE EVENING
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA, STREAMING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.86 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH RATHER EVEN MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION THROUGH
THE COLUMN. THUS, ANOTHER WARM, HUMID AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY.
HOWEVER, OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE LIMITED,
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS NO WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE. SO WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
WARM, MOIST, AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE, THERE ARE LIMITED FORCING
MECHANISMS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS THAT
HAVE FORMED HAVE DONE SO PRIMARILY ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE PINELLAS
COUNTY ALONG THE BAY BREEZE (WHICH HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
WITH THE SW FLOW NOT BEING TOO STRONG).
WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING, THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MORNING FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE
LIMITED FORCING, THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE MOISTURE GROWS EVEN DEEPER
LATER NEXT WEEK, THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS VERY LITTLE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED WITH SUCH A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE.
AS HAVE ALREADY ALLUDED TO, WE ARE LOCKED INTO A WSW FLOW PATTERN
FOR SOME TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE
FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE WSW FLOW - AND PERHAPS
ENHANCE THE OVERALL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL,
THOUGH, ONE SHOULD EXPECT EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION PROMPTED VICINITY CONVECTION MENTION
THROUGH AROUND 02Z AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WEST ACROSS
COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT VFR EXPECTED AFTERWARD CONTINUING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, WHEN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING VICINITY MENTION BACK
TO TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FLOW VEERS TO A SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY
TRANSITION INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SEAS
OF 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A PREDOMINANTLY W TO WSW FLOW IS SETTLING IN FOR THE DAYS TO COME,
KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY RH VALUES HIGH. OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST WILL DIMINISH, HOWEVER; BUT THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE A STORM NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 92 78 90 / 40 50 40 70
FMY 75 94 76 92 / 40 70 40 70
GIF 75 94 75 91 / 40 70 40 80
SRQ 76 91 76 91 / 40 50 40 70
BKV 71 93 72 91 / 30 60 40 70
SPG 78 90 78 88 / 40 50 40 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLANNERY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA/FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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