686
FXUS62 KTBW 281147
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
747 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD AS A WEST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FAVORS EARLIER
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE COASTAL TAMPA BAY AREA, WITH
ANOTHER LOWER CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. ACROSS
SWFL AND THE INTERIOR, MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM TIMING WILL CONTINUE. TEMPORARY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY DOWNBURSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A TYPICAL, ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE WSW THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HANGING
OUT OVER FL. WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DRIFT TOWARDS
THE COAST INN THE MORNING. MOST SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE
MAKING IT ONSHORE TODAY, HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN ANY DEVELOPING STORM.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREA NOT IMPACTED
BY ANY RAIN SHOWERS. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS INDOORS OR IN THE SHADE WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET ITS SIGHTS ON FL EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINING ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
GENERALLY, MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVE ONSHORE. LIGHTNING AND INCREASED WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WATER LESSENS BY MID-MORNING AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND. WSW WINDS
REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP FIRE DANGERS AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 91 77 / 50 40 60 60
FMY 93 75 92 75 / 60 40 70 40
GIF 93 75 92 74 / 70 50 70 50
SRQ 91 76 91 74 / 50 40 50 50
BKV 91 72 92 71 / 50 40 60 60
SPG 89 78 89 77 / 40 40 50 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 8
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW
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