689
FXUS62 KTBW 290045
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
IT WAS ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
TRAVERSING EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR. WE DID SEE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. WE ALSO HAD RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING STORMS, ONE OF WHICH WARRANTED A FLOOD
ADVISORY NEAR LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK. SOME STORMS AND SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER SW FL, BUT THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY, ACTIVITY HAS QUIETED DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS,
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE VICINITY. OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW SHOULD
SET IN AND LAST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
AROUND NOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD START BACK UP FOR OUR NORTHERN
SITES WITH CONVECTION FORMING OFFSHORE AND MOVING ON TO LAND.
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN QUELL THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE, OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE STORMS RESUME A FEW HOURS LATER THAN
THEIR NORTHERN COUNTERPARTS AND PERSIST LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
OVERALL, THE SETUP FOR TOMORROW AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD BE
COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY, JUST WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NEXT PERIOD. CURRENTLY,
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA, BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS COULD GET UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH
MINIMAL GUSTING PRESENT. SEAS SHOULD BE 2-3 FEET IN OUR NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES, WITH CONDITIONS OF 1-2 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 77 89 / 30 60 60 70
FMY 75 92 75 91 / 40 70 40 70
GIF 75 92 75 89 / 60 80 50 70
SRQ 75 90 75 89 / 30 60 50 70
BKV 71 92 72 89 / 40 70 60 70
SPG 77 89 77 86 / 30 60 60 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN/POGGIALI
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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