075
FXUS62 KTBW 291250
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 849 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR IMPACTS AGAIN THIS EVENING. WITH A LIGHT FLOW
STILL IN PLACE, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FLOW IS SHIFTING TO A
WSW DIRECTION, WHICH FAVORS EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING
TOMORROW. WITH LARGER WEATHER FEATURES INFLUENCING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, THERE COULD BE LONG WINDOWS FOR VCTS OVER THE DAYS
TO COME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ANOTHER WARM, HUMID FLORIDA DAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ALREADY ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING ALONG THE NATURE COAST,
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING. ALSO JUST LIKE YESTERDAY,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUSH
INLAND ALONG THE LIGHT WSW FLOW. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW, STORM MOTION
WILL BE ALMOST STATIONARY AT TIMES LEADING TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SWFL IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA DRAWING IN DEEP
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR SOME. AS ALWAYS BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHEN WORKING OR
ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS. STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN
THE SHADE. AS THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO ROLL IN
REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE NATURE COAST
CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS THEY SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 77 86 77 / 60 50 70 50
FMY 91 74 90 74 / 60 50 70 40
GIF 90 74 88 74 / 80 50 80 30
SRQ 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 60 50
BKV 88 71 86 70 / 70 50 70 50
SPG 88 76 85 76 / 60 50 60 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW
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