872
FXUS62 KTBW 300809
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
409 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE STARTING THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE COAST. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. GOOD NEWS IS,
THANKS TO THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, ANY DROUGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE BAD NEWS IS, WITH SOME
AREAS HAVING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
SOME LOCALIZED, MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS THE RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES. SOME STORMS COULD
ALSO HAVE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LATER THIS WEEK, AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SE COAST. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP DRAWING EVEN MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE
NHC HAS ALSO MARKED THIS POTENTIAL AREA WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
FORMING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHETHER OR
NOT THIS DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING MORE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL LIKELY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY BEGINNING THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND AND SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PERIODS OF BELOW VFR COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS MOVING
THROUGH TERMINALS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE
STARTING BACK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
OVERALL SURFACE WIND REMAIN BELOW 10KTS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS,
BRINING INCREASED WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS, INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK.
OVERALL, POOR MARINE CONDITIONS AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 76 86 79 / 70 40 60 40
FMY 89 74 90 76 / 60 30 60 30
GIF 88 73 88 75 / 70 30 70 30
SRQ 87 74 87 76 / 60 40 50 40
BKV 86 70 87 73 / 70 50 70 40
SPG 85 76 85 78 / 70 40 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
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