450
FXUS62 KTBW 301756
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A HUGE COMPLEX OF RAIN SITTING OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART THESE SHOWERS HAVE STAYED OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE US TO SLOWLY SEE THE SHOWERS
STARTING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL ALSO SEE OUR TYPICAL SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS START TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INLAND. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP US UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AREAS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF OUR WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE A STALL COLD
FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE OUR MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH PW TOPPING OUT AROUND 2.25 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
FRONT EITHER IN THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF BUT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW NHC CURRENTLY IS HOLDING
DEVELOPMENT AT 20%. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMBINED.
NOT MUCH CHANGING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT STILL HANGING OUT
AND ANOTHER 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY COMBINED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY STARTING
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND. TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VCTS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CLEARING OUT BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
A VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS. AS WE GO INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE GULF WITH WINDS
STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOT. NHC IS
CURRENTLY MONITORING THAT AREAS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR PICTURE IF OR WHEN
IT WOULD DEVELOPMENT AND CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY AT 20%.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 75 88 78 / 70 40 60 40
FMY 91 74 91 76 / 70 40 70 30
GIF 88 73 91 75 / 60 30 70 30
SRQ 88 73 89 76 / 60 30 50 40
BKV 88 71 89 73 / 70 40 60 40
SPG 86 77 88 78 / 70 40 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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