682
FXUS62 KTBW 010033
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
833 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
RECENT KTBW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
AND POSSIBLY NEARBY COASTAL LAND AREAS AS A WEAK TUTT MEANDERS
OVER THE REGION. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BUT THE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL KEEP ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE. OTHER
THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A HUGE COMPLEX OF RAIN SITTING OVER THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART THESE SHOWERS HAVE STAYED OFF THE COAST
HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE US TO SLOWLY SEE THE SHOWERS
STARTING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL ALSO SEE OUR TYPICAL SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS START TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INLAND. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP US UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AREAS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF OUR WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE A STALL COLD
FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE OUR MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH PW TOPPING OUT AROUND 2.25 BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
FRONT EITHER IN THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF BUT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO
DETERMINE ANY IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW NHC CURRENTLY IS HOLDING
DEVELOPMENT AT 20%. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
4 TO 6 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMBINED.
NOT MUCH CHANGING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT STILL HANGING OUT
AND ANOTHER 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY COMBINED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT SWFL TERMINALS AT THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED
TSRA IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 19Z/20Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
A VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS. AS WE GO INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE GULF WITH WINDS
STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOT. NHC IS
CURRENTLY MONITORING THAT AREAS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR PICTURE IF OR WHEN
IT WOULD DEVELOPMENT AND CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY AT 20%.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 88 78 88 / 40 60 40 70
FMY 74 91 76 91 / 40 70 30 70
GIF 73 91 75 90 / 30 70 30 70
SRQ 73 89 76 88 / 30 50 40 70
BKV 71 89 73 88 / 40 60 40 70
SPG 77 88 78 86 / 40 60 40 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page