313
FXUS62 KTBW 011200
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
QUIETER START TO THE DAY AS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL OFFSHORE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE WE'LL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THEN BECOMING NUMEROUS AS THEY SPREAD
INLAND AND NORTH INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
AROUND 19Z AND THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST BEFORE TAPERING OFF
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TAF SITES.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER EAST OF
FLORIDA THIS MORNING, WHILE BROAD RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
BUT WILL SLIDE SOUTH BY TONIGHT, SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHIFTING ONSHORE, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING
INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
STARTING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL
GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 20% CHANCE OF BECOMING TROPICAL SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, IT WILL BOOST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF
2.0-2.4) AND RESULTANT RAIN COVERAGE. 7 DAY RAIN TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO BE UP TO 7 INCHES (WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST), WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MUCH RAIN
COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAL FLOODING AND CAUSE RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS TO NEAR OR ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OTHERWISE, WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT DOWN SLIGHTLY, GENERALLY TOPPING
OUT NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH
BY TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS, BUT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY, PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH MARINE
CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, CREATING
LIGHT AND RATHER VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS, WITH DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, THEN BUILDING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. PATCHY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 78 88 79 / 60 40 70 60
FMY 92 76 91 77 / 60 40 50 30
GIF 91 75 89 76 / 70 40 70 40
SRQ 90 76 88 77 / 60 40 70 60
BKV 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 70 60
SPG 87 78 86 78 / 60 40 70 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page