394
FXUS62 KTBW 011845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A
WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE DETAILS
OF IF/WHERE A SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY MOVES, BUT EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK WE'LL SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE PRESENT TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE COAST AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GET ACTIVE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION LATER
THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE EXACT TIMING DIFFERS WITH
THE GUIDANCE, BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS A RATHER WET AND GLOOMY PERIOD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH FLOODING OF
URBAN, LOW LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN THREAT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE 12Z GFS NOW KEEPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MOVES IT OFF THE EAST COAST AND
WOULD THEREFORE ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LIMITING OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS AS THE FINAL OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREADING INLAND BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS EVENING. MORE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND
THE TAMPA BAY TAF SITES AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 7 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THIS EVENING, THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, WITH NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, EXPECT GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 88 79 87 / 40 80 80 90
FMY 75 91 77 89 / 40 60 50 60
GIF 74 89 76 89 / 40 80 40 80
SRQ 76 88 77 87 / 40 70 80 80
BKV 72 88 74 88 / 40 80 80 80
SPG 78 86 78 85 / 40 70 80 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CLOSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page