014
FXUS62 KTBW 020042
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN INTERIOR
AREAS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEARBY COASTAL AREAS WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AREA-WIDE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INLAND AMID THE MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
RATHER MESSY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A
WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STILL DEPICTING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE DETAILS
OF IF/WHERE A SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY MOVES, BUT EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK WE'LL SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE PRESENT TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE COAST AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GET ACTIVE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BECOMING MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION LATER
THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE EXACT TIMING DIFFERS WITH
THE GUIDANCE, BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS A RATHER WET AND GLOOMY PERIOD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH FLOODING OF
URBAN, LOW LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN THREAT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE 12Z GFS NOW KEEPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MOVES IT OFF THE EAST COAST AND
WOULD THEREFORE ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LIMITING OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS AS THE FINAL OUTCOME WILL
LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW PASSING SHRA MAY OCCUR AT
TIMES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION BUT PERIODS
OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY DIRECT IMPACTS AT
TERMINALS OCCUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, WITH NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, EXPECT GUSTY
AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 88 79 87 / 40 80 80 90
FMY 75 91 77 89 / 40 60 50 60
GIF 74 89 76 89 / 40 80 40 80
SRQ 76 88 77 87 / 40 70 80 80
BKV 72 88 74 88 / 40 80 80 80
SPG 78 86 78 85 / 40 70 80 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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