046
FXUS62 KTBW 051214
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
814 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. FARTHER TO THE WEST, UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ON
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES EAST TO WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN
GULF BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A MORE NEUTRAL STEERING FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH
OR WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NHC IS GIVING
THIS AREA A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 - 2.4 INCHES. A WETTER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED.
BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING, SOME DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 -
2.0 WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA RIDGES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-
106 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70'S TO
LOW 80'S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING A LATER START TO CONVECTION WITH MOST OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING AFTER 19Z. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SEAS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS,
PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 81 95 79 / 50 20 70 40
FMY 96 78 95 77 / 70 50 80 40
GIF 97 76 96 75 / 70 40 80 30
SRQ 94 78 95 77 / 40 30 70 50
BKV 94 74 95 74 / 60 20 70 40
SPG 92 81 93 79 / 40 20 60 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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