018
FXUS62 KTBW 051740
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF, AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH HUMID AIR
OVER FLORIDA TODAY WITH A PWAT OF 1.7 TO 2.1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO A NEUTRAL FLOW WEDNESDAY, STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
POPULATE ON THE COAST AND SLOW DOWN, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE AREA. NHC ALSO HAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WETTER PATTERN STARTING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO LATER THIS WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST, EXPECT A BOOST OF
EXTRA MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO HELP TO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE W COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING A LATER START TO CONVECTION WITH MOST OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY HAPPENING AFTER 19Z. SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEING OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WE WILL SEE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WITH STORMS MAINLY FORMING OVER
LAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD ALSO FAVOR EVENING STORMS ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 79 93 80 / 30 30 60 40
FMY 94 77 94 77 / 60 40 80 40
GIF 95 76 94 77 / 60 40 70 30
SRQ 92 77 93 77 / 40 20 60 40
BKV 94 73 94 74 / 40 20 60 30
SPG 93 81 92 80 / 30 20 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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