942
FXUS62 KTBW 060638
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
238 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. ON THE SURFACE, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN GULF REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST, NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 - 2.4 INCHES. A WETTER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING, SOME DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 -
2.0 WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING BACK EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100-106 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70'S
TO LOW 80'S. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE AFTER 18Z, SO WILL HOLD VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AT THAT TIME.
HAVE ALSO PUT PROB30 TSRA AT THOSE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SEAS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS,
PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 80 94 79 / 60 30 70 60
FMY 96 77 95 77 / 80 50 80 60
GIF 95 76 95 75 / 70 30 80 40
SRQ 95 77 93 77 / 50 30 70 60
BKV 94 74 94 74 / 60 30 70 50
SPG 92 80 91 79 / 50 30 70 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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