619
FXUS62 KTBW 061246
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
846 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
QUIET MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS HERE AND THERE AND AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TODAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE LAST FEW DAYS TO EASTERLY
TOMORROW WITH RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER INLAND AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE OF AN
EASTERLY PUSH LATER TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS SO THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINE UP FROM AROUND LAKE AND POLK
COUNTIES SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT INTO THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO DEPICT
THIS SCENARIO, OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 846 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. ON THE SURFACE, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN GULF REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION
TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST, NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 - 2.4 INCHES. A WETTER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING, SOME DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 -
2.0 WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING BACK EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES TO START OUT NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100-106 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70'S
TO LOW 80'S. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SETS UP
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SEAS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS,
PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 80 94 79 / 40 20 70 60
FMY 96 77 95 77 / 70 50 80 60
GIF 95 76 95 75 / 70 50 80 40
SRQ 95 77 93 77 / 40 30 70 60
BKV 94 74 94 74 / 40 20 70 50
SPG 92 80 91 79 / 30 20 70 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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