501
FXUS62 KTBW 061845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
WE ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME BY TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPULATE THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
STRONG-STEERING WIND TODAY AND THE CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE HEIGHTENED. TONIGHT, THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN FL WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, AS THAT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SITS ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (PWAT OF 2.0-2.4) WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
NHC STILL HAS THAT AREA FLAGGED WITH A 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PERSISTS
UNDER THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WE START TO TRANSITION BACK INTO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION ALONG
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SLIGHT SEAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS, PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 94 79 92 / 30 70 70 90
FMY 77 94 77 92 / 50 80 50 90
GIF 76 95 77 93 / 40 70 60 90
SRQ 77 94 76 92 / 40 60 70 90
BKV 74 94 73 92 / 30 70 60 90
SPG 80 91 78 90 / 30 60 70 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DELGADO
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
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