732
FXUS62 KTBW 070039
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
839 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA FROM THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WE HAD IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOST OUTFLOWS ESCAPING
OFFSHORE, ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE COMING TO A
CLOSE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS HILLSBOROUGH AND MANATEE COUNTIES. TOMORROW,
EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERATE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS
AND TOTALS ON THE WESTERN COAST, AS THE WESTERN SEA- BREEZE IS
GENERALLY HELD IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
WE ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME BY TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPULATE THE COAST AND
EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INLAND. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
STRONG-STEERING WIND TODAY AND THE CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE HEIGHTENED. TONIGHT, THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN FL WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, AS THAT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SITS ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (PWAT OF 2.0-2.4) WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
NHC STILL HAS THAT AREA FLAGGED WITH A 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PERSISTS
UNDER THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVERAGE.
BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WE START TO TRANSITION BACK INTO OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
LINGERING AND WEAKENING ISOLD TSRAS REMAIN AROUND THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH VERY LIMITED AND BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
WILL KEEP VCTS THRU 01Z-02Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT NE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF +TSRAS AFT 17-18Z THU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SLIGHT SEAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS, PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 94 79 92 / 30 70 70 90
FMY 77 94 77 92 / 50 80 50 90
GIF 76 95 77 93 / 40 70 60 90
SRQ 77 94 76 92 / 40 60 70 90
BKV 74 94 73 92 / 30 70 60 90
SPG 80 91 78 90 / 30 60 70 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE...AUSTIN/HURT
AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...AUSTIN/HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
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