698
FXUS62 KTBW 071040
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
640 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT ALL
SITES. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS, STARTING AROUND 18-19Z AT THE EARLIEST, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAMES HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPO GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW STORMS LINGERING PAST 00Z TONIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY FADING. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS
BOUNDARY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK, THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING TODAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.9 - 2.4
INCHES. THIS WET PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING, SOME DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 -
2.0 WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING BACK EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70'S
TO LOW 80'S. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND MINIMAL SEAS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS,
PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 79 92 78 / 70 60 80 60
FMY 94 77 93 76 / 70 50 80 60
GIF 94 75 93 75 / 70 40 80 30
SRQ 93 76 92 76 / 70 60 80 60
BKV 94 73 92 74 / 70 50 80 50
SPG 91 79 90 78 / 70 60 80 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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