120
FXUS62 KTBW 071749
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
149 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
DISCUSSION
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS SWITCHED TO MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE EAST
COAST AND INTERIOR EARLIER TO NOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SETUP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES NEAR THE COAST LATER IN
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN GO UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE ON THE RISE, THOUGH FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
FOR NEXT WEEK, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES, JUST SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE RESULTING IN DIFFERENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY WESTWARD AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN
PLACE FOR ALL SITES HIGHLIGHTING THE TIMEFRAME WITH THE BEST
CHANCES, THOUGH STORMS COULD LINGER AFTER 00Z. A SIMILAR SETUP IS
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
MARINE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING
AS CONVECTION MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS FROM LAND, THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WARM AND HUMID
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, GENERALLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 92 78 92 / 60 80 60 80
FMY 77 92 77 92 / 50 80 60 80
GIF 76 92 76 93 / 40 80 50 80
SRQ 76 92 75 92 / 60 80 70 80
BKV 73 92 74 92 / 60 80 60 80
SPG 78 90 78 90 / 70 80 70 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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