022
FXUS62 KTBW 080032
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
832 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE WEST FL COAST
AND INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT IN NW FL FROM THE TYPICAL LAND BREEZE.
TOMORROW, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COMING OFF A HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO WESTERN FL AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH PWATS
OVER 2.4" IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST, LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY OUTFLOW-DRIVEN STORMS
COLLIDE AND SIT OVER CERTAIN SMALL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS SWITCHED TO MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE EAST
COAST AND INTERIOR EARLIER TO NOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SETUP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES NEAR THE COAST LATER IN
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN GO UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE ON THE RISE, THOUGH FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
FOR NEXT WEEK, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES, JUST SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE RESULTING IN DIFFERENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS TO KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR BRIEFLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH AROUND 02Z THEN SHORT LIVED LIGHT VCSH POSSIBLE
BEFORE CLEARING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FRI AFT 18Z EXPECT
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND AFTERNOON TSRA AT OR NR ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING
AS CONVECTION MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS FROM LAND, THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WARM AND HUMID
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, GENERALLY MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH
THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 92 78 92 / 60 80 60 80
FMY 77 92 77 92 / 50 80 60 80
GIF 76 92 76 93 / 40 80 50 80
SRQ 76 92 75 92 / 60 80 70 80
BKV 73 92 74 92 / 60 80 60 80
SPG 78 90 78 90 / 70 80 70 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE...AUSTIN/HURT
AVIATION...RDAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
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