804  
FXUS62 KTBW 081103  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
703 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY, WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFFECTING ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY RAIN, BUT HAVE  
VCTS STARTING BETWEEN 17-19Z AREA-WIDE, WITH TEMPO GROUPS  
HIGHLIGHTING THE TIME FRAMES WITH THE BEST STORM CHANCES. SIMILAR  
TO YESTERDAY, ACTIVITY WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AFTER 00Z, THEN  
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EVEN HIGHER FOR  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED EAST TO WEST  
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WATERS. THIS  
BOUNDARY SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND  
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE  
NORTHEAST, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ONLY A 20  
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS IT  
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ON THE  
SOUTH AND MOIST SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE AN  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PWAT  
VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 - 2.4 INCHES. THIS WET PATTERN WILL SUPPORT  
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER  
STORMS.  
 
BY MONDAY MORNING, SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN  
1.9 - 2.2 INCHES SETTLES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF.  
THIS WILL BRING BACK EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO  
SLIGHTLY LOWER, MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR  
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S. WITH  
HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH 100-104 DEGREES EACH  
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70'S TO LOW 80'S. A  
SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CREEPING BACK  
UP INTO THE MID 90'S AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100-107 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND MINIMAL SEAS EXPECTED OVER  
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED  
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH  
DAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR  
LESS, PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 92 78 91 78 / 80 70 80 70  
FMY 92 76 91 76 / 80 60 80 60  
GIF 92 74 92 74 / 80 50 80 40  
SRQ 92 75 92 76 / 80 70 80 70  
BKV 91 73 91 74 / 80 60 80 60  
SPG 89 77 89 78 / 80 70 80 70  
 

 
 
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2  
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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