986
FXUS62 KTBW 081745
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
DISCUSSION
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO ANOTHER STORMY
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVER LAND AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STUCK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS, COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY, THOUGH THE SEVERITY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
TIED TO HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCALE GETS AT ONCE OR OVER MULTIPLE
INSTANCES. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY THAT GENERALLY GO BACK
UP MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING OTHERWISE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT
ALL SITES. CURRENT TEMPO GROUPS TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST CHANCES,
BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AT SOME POINT LATER THIS EVENING.
SOME CONVECTION LINGERS AFTER 00Z, THEN CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH A TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS CONVECTION
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS FROM LAND, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WARM AND HUMID
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 92 78 90 / 70 90 70 80
FMY 75 92 76 91 / 50 80 60 80
GIF 75 93 76 92 / 60 80 40 80
SRQ 75 92 75 90 / 70 80 70 80
BKV 73 92 73 90 / 60 80 60 80
SPG 78 89 77 88 / 70 90 80 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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