587  
FXUS62 KTBW 090038  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
838 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
ACTIVE ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING COPIOUS RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS... INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE ACROSS TAMPA BAY AREA COUNTIES  
PROMPTING MULTIPLE FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN  
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. MESO-ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE  
PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA, WITH A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM  
GENERALLY COLLOCATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW TO MID  
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL  
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED  
BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. SE/S FLOW EXPECTED ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA  
WILL FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS  
DEVELOPING, WITH AN ATTENDANT PRIMARY FLOODING THREAT ALONG WITH  
THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE STATE. A  
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA  
BREEZE AND OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN  
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE  
STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO ANOTHER STORMY  
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET  
BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVER LAND AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STUCK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS, COMBINED  
WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO  
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY, THOUGH THE SEVERITY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE  
TIED TO HOW MUCH RAIN ANY LOCALE GETS AT ONCE OR OVER MULTIPLE  
INSTANCES. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,  
WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY THAT GENERALLY GO BACK  
UP MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH  
THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING OTHERWISE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
MAINLY STRATIFIED PRECIP SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL  
LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH VCTS  
MENTION AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
AS EVENING CONVECTION GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN, WHILE SOUTHERN  
TERMINALS REMAIN MAINLY DRY. VFR REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT BEFORE  
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON  
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WITH LIKELY  
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/E-SE OVERNIGHT  
INCREASING TO SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON, WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS IN/NEAR STORMS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS, WITH A TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST  
RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AS CONVECTION  
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WATERS FROM LAND, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE  
FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WARM AND HUMID  
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TPA 78 92 78 90 / 70 90 70 80  
FMY 75 92 76 91 / 50 80 60 80  
GIF 75 93 76 92 / 60 80 40 80  
SRQ 75 92 75 90 / 70 80 70 80  
BKV 73 92 73 90 / 60 80 60 80  
SPG 78 89 77 88 / 70 90 80 80  
 
 
 
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6  
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY  
 
 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT  
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE  
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY/AUSTIN  
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME/ULEVICIUS  
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