370
FXUS62 KTBW 090652
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
252 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GULF IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND MAY DRIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES. CONVECTION WILL THEN
START TO FIRE UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH STORMS GENERALLY MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE BRIEF SPIN-UPS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE
AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING SETS UP NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW, ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO MODERATE A BIT, BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BROAD RIDING WILL ALSO SET UP ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS MOVE OVER AREA TERMINALS,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z-00Z. MAINLY
RAIN FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AROUND 02-03Z THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NORTH OF FLORIDA,
CONTINUING THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BUT BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MASS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 91 79 / 90 70 100 60
FMY 90 76 92 76 / 90 70 100 50
GIF 92 76 92 76 / 90 50 90 30
SRQ 91 75 91 76 / 90 70 100 70
BKV 90 73 91 74 / 90 60 100 60
SPG 88 77 88 78 / 90 80 100 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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