595
FXUS62 KTBW 091824
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
224 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A VERY MOIST REGIME WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES HAS ALSO BROUGHT
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO THE WEST COAST EACH EVENING. THIS TREND IS
ALREADY STARTING UP TODAY WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE
LAST HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUR MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE START TO FORM TO OUR NORTH AS
TROUGHING MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING PWS DOWN SLIGHTLY BACK TO
AROUND AVERAGE. HOWEVER, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN. THIS
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES ON THE WEST COAST BUT POPS
WILL BE DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING US TO A MORE NEUTRAL FLOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT SHOWER CHANCES MORE INLAND. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH OUTFLOWS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP VCSH FOR OUR COASTAL SITE FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS BELOW 10
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND STORM OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL KEEP ACTIVITY IN THE GULF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT A
MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 91 79 / 80 60 90 60
FMY 91 76 90 76 / 90 60 90 50
GIF 91 75 92 76 / 80 50 90 30
SRQ 91 75 90 76 / 80 70 90 60
BKV 91 73 92 73 / 90 60 80 60
SPG 89 77 88 78 / 80 70 90 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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