565
FXUS62 KTBW 100714
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS POTENTIALLY MOVING ONSHORE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS OF SEVERAL
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING.
BY MONDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING AND MOVING AWAY,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE BUT WILL MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH A LOWER RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN OVER FLORIDA, WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S EACH
DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING, CAUSING PERIODS OF DISRUPTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.
AFTER 18Z, MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, AND ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY RAIN FREE AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY AROUND 01-03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY,
BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND
15 KNOTS OR LESS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NORTH OF FLORIDA, CONTINUING
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 78 93 79 / 80 60 70 40
FMY 90 76 94 77 / 90 50 80 30
GIF 91 75 94 77 / 80 50 70 20
SRQ 88 75 93 76 / 90 60 70 40
BKV 90 73 93 74 / 80 60 70 30
SPG 87 77 90 79 / 90 70 70 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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