502  
FXUS62 KTBW 101200  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, MVFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TERMINALS ACROSS SWFL HAVE ALREADY BEEN  
EXPERIENCING SOME IMPACTS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD OF  
HIGHEST IMPACTS IS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING AND  
INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS  
OF 20 TO 25KTS. A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN RETURNS TOMORROW WITH MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY  
DISSIPATE TODAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE  
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL  
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH  
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS POTENTIALLY MOVING ONSHORE AT  
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING  
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS OF SEVERAL  
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING.  
 
BY MONDAY, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE DISSIPATING AND MOVING AWAY,  
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL  
KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE BUT WILL MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC  
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH A LOWER RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL  
BUILD IN OVER FLORIDA, WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  
TO WARM UP AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S EACH  
DAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY,  
BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND  
15 KNOTS OR LESS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND  
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NORTH OF FLORIDA, CONTINUING  
THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.  
HOWEVER, THIS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 89 78 93 79 / 80 60 70 40  
FMY 90 76 94 77 / 90 50 80 30  
GIF 91 75 94 77 / 80 50 70 20  
SRQ 88 75 93 76 / 90 60 70 40  
BKV 90 73 93 74 / 80 60 70 30  
SPG 87 77 90 79 / 90 70 70 40  
 

 
 
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6  
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...FLANNERY  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FLEMING  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page