740
FXUS62 KTBW 101741
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A TROUGH AXIS IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, ASSOCIATED WITH
A PERSISTENT STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER N FL. WEAK RIDGING IN THE
BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS KEPT THIS BOUNDARY STUCK WHERE IT IS FOR
SOME TIME NOW, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES JUST OFF THE FL WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE.
THE 12Z SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN CAME IN WITH A PWAT WELL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES (2.21 IN TO BE EXACT). THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE - AND JUST SHY OF THE DAILY MAX. THE PROFILE IS VERY
SATURATED, WITH LITTLE T/TD SPREAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THE
500MB TEMPERATURE IS ONLY 5C, AND THE FZL IS JUST OVER 16KFT
TODAY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LAPSE DRIVEN BOTH BY THE HIGH
LEVEL OF SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER - THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN IS ONLY 5 TO 6 KNOTS, THUS FAVORING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. ALREADY THIS HAS HAD AN IMPACT,
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NOW APPROACHING AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES SINCE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SWFL BARRIER ISLANDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
AS RIDGING RE-CENTERS OVER THE STATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, A
SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ONLY
BE "DRIER" IN A RELATIVE SENSE. THE PWATS ARE FAVORED TO DROP BELOW
2 INCHES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL-ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WITH A LOW-LEVEL
SE FLOW CONTINUING (AND PERHAPS GROWING EVER SO SLIGHTLY STRONGER),
THIS WILL FAVOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE DAY.
AS SOME OF THE ENERGY OVER THE GULF EVENTUALLY PROPAGATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND IS THEN SWEPT BACK UP IN THE FLOW,
THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE COULD THEN WRAP BACK AROUND INTO OUR
VICINITY BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. IF THAT WAS TO OCCUR, IT
COULD AGAIN FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND - OR AT
THE VERY LEAST, POTENTIALLY HIGHER HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE - SHOWING
A PRETTY TYPICAL AUGUST WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AND
RAIN CHANCES OF 50% TO 60%.
REGARDLESS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT. THIS
MEANS THAT THE KEY THEME FOR THE WEEK AHEAD IS TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING) EXPECTED EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS, ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS NOW RESIDES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY REGION. SWFL HAS LARGELY BEEN WORKED OVER, SO THE MAIN
IMPACT JUST LOOKS TO BE SHOWERS. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
RETURNS TOMORROW AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE AN IMPACT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS
OVER THE GULF. A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEING THE BEST WINDOW TO SEE STORMS. WHILE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A
SLIGHT BIT MORE TOMORROW, FAVORING SEAS AROUND 2 FEET BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BACK CLOSER TO ONE FOOT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS WINDS TREND BACK INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE PENINSULA, FAVORING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TOMORROW AND
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SWFL. WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 93 79 94 / 40 70 30 60
FMY 75 93 77 94 / 40 70 30 80
GIF 75 94 76 95 / 30 70 20 70
SRQ 75 92 76 94 / 50 70 30 60
BKV 73 93 74 94 / 40 70 30 60
SPG 77 89 79 91 / 50 70 40 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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