011
FXUS62 KTBW 110647
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE
HOLDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF AS A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS, A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL
IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF FLORIDA.
WHILE THIS DRIER AIR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY, IT IS EXPECTED TO KNOCK DAILY RAIN TOTALS
DOWN FROM WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND LIMIT THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THAT SAID, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO FUEL NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK UNDER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AN UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN ALOFT OF FLORIDA, PROVIDING BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO CLIMB UPWARDS. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS EACH
AFTERNOON DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
NORTH THOUGH THE AREA. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 18-20Z, AND WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY DISRUPTIONS AS THEY PASS OVER AREA TERMINALS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 01-03Z THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILL IN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW, STORMS WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY, THEN LAND BASED STORMS WILL PUSH WEST INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 79 93 80 / 60 30 60 30
FMY 92 76 94 77 / 70 30 80 30
GIF 93 76 94 76 / 60 20 70 10
SRQ 92 76 93 76 / 60 30 60 40
BKV 92 74 93 74 / 60 20 60 20
SPG 89 78 91 79 / 60 30 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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