667
FNUS72 KTBW 211010
FWSTBW
SPOT FORECAST FOR AR-31A RX BURN...FLORIDA DEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
610 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (813) 645-2323 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 MPH, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 29 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 43 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 58
INCREASING TO 61 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 47.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........16 23 37 44 46 47
WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 30 30 60 60
TEMP............76 83 89 92 92 91
RH..............92 79 66 60 58 59
20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 3 SW 6 W 9 W 10 W 12
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 9 13 15 16
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1400 3600 4100 4300 3900
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 W 6 W 9 W 12 W 13 W 13
DISPERSION IDX..1 15 43 62 64 47
LVORI...........7 5 2 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....32 DECREASING TO 3.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........44 37 33 29 34 28
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 20 10 20 20
TEMP............88 84 81 79 78 77
RH..............65 74 82 87 91 93
20 FT WIND......W 10 W 7 SW 5 S 3 SW 2 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.17 13 9 7 6 7
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 700 500 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 W 9 SW 8 SW 6 SW 7 SW 5
DISPERSION IDX..32 4 1 3 3 2
LVORI...........1 3 5 6 6 6
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10
TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 65.
LVORI...............4.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........28 42 50 57 60 56
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 40 40 70 70
TEMP............77 78 85 89 90 90
RH..............93 90 76 69 66 63
20 FT WIND......S 2 S 3 SW 6 SW 8 W 10 W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 9 13 14 16
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 2300 3800 4400 4000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 S 6 SW 10 W 10 W 13 W 14
DISPERSION IDX..1 6 32 56 66 68
LVORI...........7 6 3 1 1 1
FORECASTER...PEARCE
REQUESTED BY...JON MEYER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520249.2/TBW
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JONATHAN.C.MEYER@FLORIDADEP.GOV
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