284
FXUS62 KTBW 031843
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
243 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT WAS GIVING US SOME SINKING AIR
AND PREVENTING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FRONT ITSELF TO MOVE US CLOSER TO I-4 TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW.
HI-RES MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ON
OR SOUTH OF I-4. THE FRONT WILL START SLIDE SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS MUCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
THE REST OF US STAYING DRY.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IF WE DO SEE SOME STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MAINLY
BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS TREND OF DRIER AIR SHOULD STICK
AROUND FOR MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AND BRING HIGH
STORMS CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
GENERAL THINKING FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-4. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT THE
STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH. HI-RES MODELS NOW SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING SO ADD VCSH FOR COASTAL SITES AT THAT TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TOMORROW BUT BEST CHANCES
WILL BE HAPPENING AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A STALL OUT FRONT WILL BE OUR MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY THE
FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING FOR THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT
A MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 50
FMY 75 89 76 90 / 60 80 50 80
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 70 20 60
SRQ 75 90 75 90 / 50 70 30 60
BKV 72 92 71 93 / 20 40 10 50
SPG 78 90 76 89 / 40 60 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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