077
FXUS62 KTBW 040037
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
837 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INTERIOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 AND SWFL WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS
ABOVE 2" AS THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
WIND DOWN OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF IT THEN OCCURRING OVER GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP IT CLOSE TO COASTAL AREAS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SWFL AT TIMES. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT WAS GIVING US SOME SINKING AIR
AND PREVENTING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FRONT ITSELF TO MOVE US CLOSER TO I-4 TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW.
HI-RES MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ON
OR SOUTH OF I-4. THE FRONT WILL START SLIDE SOUTH AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS MUCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MAINLY SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
THE REST OF US STAYING DRY.
FOR THE WEEKEND THE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER POPS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IF WE DO SEE SOME STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MAINLY
BE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS TREND OF DRIER AIR SHOULD STICK
AROUND FOR MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RISE ONCE AGAIN AND BRING HIGH
STORMS CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR MAINLY IN SWFL AT TIMES DUE TO POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY. SCATTERED TSRA COULD THEN OCCUR BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A STALL OUT FRONT WILL BE OUR MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY THE
FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING FOR THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER AT
A MINIMUM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 50
FMY 75 89 76 90 / 60 80 50 80
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 70 20 60
SRQ 75 90 75 90 / 50 70 30 60
BKV 72 92 71 93 / 20 40 10 50
SPG 78 90 76 89 / 40 60 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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