550
FXUS62 KTBW 040703
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE BOUNDARY, MOSTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, THE
NATURE COAST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A DRYER AIR MASS, KEEPING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING A BIT MORE DRY AIR MOVING
IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE. AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO DIP DOWN TOWARDS
FLORIDA. MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S, LOW 90S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEEKEND WHEN RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIMITED, HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S. THE
WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME HEAT INDICES BACK IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
SOME AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTED WILL BE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY
MOVE OVER TERMINALS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS
FOR SOUTHERN SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. RAIN AND STORMS DECREASE OVER THE WATERS AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO DRYER AIR MOVING IN . WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AMPLE MOISTURE
KEEPS RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 91 78 / 50 20 40 20
FMY 89 76 89 76 / 80 50 70 30
GIF 91 75 91 75 / 60 20 50 10
SRQ 90 74 90 75 / 60 30 50 30
BKV 91 71 92 72 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 88 76 89 77 / 50 20 40 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page