181
FXUS62 KTBW 050746
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TODAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT, CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS JOB SERIOUSLY BY REMAINING
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS, ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE STRONGER E/NE FLOW. SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PUSHED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
BEING THE STATIONARY FRONT MIGRATING A LITTLE BIT NORTH. BY SUNDAY A
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SINKING COLD FRONT MOVES OVER FL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SINK INTO CENTRAL FL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LINGERS FOR A FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME RAIN-FREE POCKETS
REACHING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
CAUSE PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF THEY MOVE OVER
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS STORMS DIMINISH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY, FAVORING SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE WATERS IN THE
EVENINGS. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE LEVELS KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 91 78 / 50 30 60 20
FMY 90 76 89 77 / 80 50 70 30
GIF 92 76 92 76 / 60 20 70 20
SRQ 91 75 90 77 / 60 50 60 30
BKV 93 73 92 72 / 40 20 60 20
SPG 90 77 88 77 / 60 40 60 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...DELERME
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