722
FXUS62 KTBW 051129
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A FEW COASTAL STORMS CONTINUE OFF THE SWFL COAST THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA. THIS IS MASKING SOME OF THE DRIER AIR THAT REMAINS
PRESENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS
FROM TPA AND MCO STILL SHOW THAT DRY AIR REMAINS, WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER AROUND 900MB AND MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEGINNING AROUND
550MB.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO AGAIN DELAY HEATING
SOMEWHAT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION, DESPITE A PWAT OF
AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING, A WEAK VEERING PROFILE (FAVORING
PARCEL ASCENT), AND CAPE VALUES ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND
FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON.
THUS, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
NOT DRAMATICALLY - AS THERE STILL ARE PLENTY OF REASONS WHY IT COULD
RAIN - BUT ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IT WAS.
EVEN WITH CAMS SHOWING AN ACTIVE EVENING, PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS THAT
OVERALL COVERAGE PROBABLY WON'T BE THAT GOOD.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE MAIN IMPACT AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE
SETUP IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SUGGESTING LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE AND
THUS SHORTER WINDOWS FOR IMPACTS. ACROSS SWFL AND THE INTERIOR,
SHOWERS - RATHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS - ARE MORE LIKELY. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FAVORS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TODAY. A
STATIONARY FRONT, CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS JOB SERIOUSLY BY REMAINING
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONCE AGAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAS, ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE STRONGER E/NE
FLOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHED TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
BEING THE STATIONARY FRONT MIGRATING A LITTLE BIT NORTH. BY SUNDAY A
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SINKING COLD FRONT MOVES OVER FL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SINK INTO CENTRAL FL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LINGERS FOR A FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH SOME RAIN-FREE POCKETS
REACHING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN SHIFTS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY, FAVORING SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE WATERS IN THE
EVENINGS. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOISTURE LEVELS KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 91 78 / 50 40 60 20
FMY 90 76 89 77 / 60 50 70 30
GIF 92 76 92 76 / 50 20 70 20
SRQ 91 75 90 77 / 60 50 60 30
BKV 93 73 92 72 / 30 20 60 20
SPG 90 77 88 77 / 60 50 60 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PEARCE
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