821
FXUS62 KTBW 061156
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
756 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
ACROSS SWFL, THE FORECAST HAS NOT REALLY PANNED OUT AS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BROAD,
DISORGANIZED LOW IN THE GULF HAS LED TO A LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST ACARS
SOUNDINGS OF THE MORNING FROM TPA SHOW THAT ANOTHER POCKET OF DRY
AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION.
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED NE, THEY HAVE BEEN ENCOUNTERING
THIS DRIER AND ARE SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATING. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE, SUGGESTING THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO SWFL THIS MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. SOME OF
IT MAY ALSO BE PUSHED AWAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW LATER TODAY AS WELL. IF ANYTHING, THIS COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS USING THE REMAINING DRIER AIR ALOFT
TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY.
THUS, ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE HAS REALLY STRUGGLED
TO PICK UP ON THE NUANCES OF THE CURRENT SETUP THAT HAVE DRIVEN
THE CONDITIONS SEEN. FOR THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. THE OVERALL SETUP REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SWFL COAST. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR IS
LIMITING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION, KEEPING TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS
CLEAR FOR NOW. THE SETUP REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST IMPACTS
ARE FAVORED BETWEEN 19Z TO 23Z, WITH SOME LINGERING STORMS
POSSIBLE A LITTLE LONGER. AS A WSW FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT,
THIS FAVORS EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE DAYS TO COME. WITH MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING INTO THE AREA EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, THIS COULD ALSO EXTEND THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS TO
MOST OF THE DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ENDING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN
IS PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY UNDER SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK AND RATHER VARIABLE,
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY, THE GULF SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND
REPLACES THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH REALLY WON'T CHANGE THE
OVERALL PATTERN THAT MUCH. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP A PATTERN OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEK,
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY, EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
DEEP MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. NO HUMIDITY
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 91 77 / 70 40 60 30
FMY 90 77 89 75 / 80 50 70 40
GIF 92 75 92 75 / 80 40 70 30
SRQ 90 77 89 75 / 70 40 60 30
BKV 92 72 91 71 / 70 40 60 30
SPG 88 77 88 76 / 70 40 50 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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