986
FXUS62 KTBW 070036
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
836 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
IT HAS BEEN A RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE STATE AWAY FROM
THE COASTLINE. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND 2-4
INCHES, WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 5 INCHES, WHICH PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR HERNANDO, CITRUS, SUMTER AND
LEVY COUNTIES. THE WINDS HAVEN'T BEEN ALL THAT CONCERNING WITH ONLY
AROUND 30-40 MPH BEING OBSERVED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. RADAR IS
SHOWING THINGS QUIETING DOWN WITH MOST OF THE STORMS WINDING DOWN
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY STORM OVER SW FL AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THESE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MOST OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHOWERS, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE BULK OF THESE STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION INLAND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LINGER ALONG THE SWFL COAST THROUGH THE
DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
POSSIBLE AT REALLY ANYTIME ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS CREATING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 77 89 / 40 50 30 80
FMY 76 90 75 89 / 40 80 40 80
GIF 76 92 75 90 / 50 70 40 80
SRQ 76 90 75 89 / 30 60 30 80
BKV 73 90 72 88 / 40 50 30 80
SPG 78 88 77 87 / 30 50 30 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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