516
FXUS62 KTBW 071828
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
DISCUSSION
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS SETUP HAS LED TO A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH
SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE GULF LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING NOW
STARTING TO MOVE MORE INLAND AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE REGION AND WE DO STILL HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE REALLY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS GRADUALLY SWINGS EASTWARD AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRIER AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTHWARD BUT WILL LOWER
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THUS
LOWER THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOR THOSE SAME AREAS. IT WILL BE
A DIFFERENT STORY SOUTH OF WHEREVER THE DRY AIR BOUNDARY LANDS, AND
THOSE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. BEST STORM
CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOR KLAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL
LINGER, BUT THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING POSSIBLY EARLY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST, BUT THEN MORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE EASTER GULF FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS, BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WARM AND HUMID
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 88 76 88 / 40 70 50 90
FMY 76 89 74 88 / 30 70 50 80
GIF 75 89 74 89 / 40 80 50 90
SRQ 76 89 73 87 / 50 70 50 80
BKV 72 88 71 87 / 40 70 50 90
SPG 76 86 75 86 / 40 70 60 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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