553
FXUS62 KTBW 080014
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
814 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS HAS KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL WAS
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NATURE COAST WHERE 2-4 INCHES WAS REPORTED,
WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF LEVY COUNTY. LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW HOURS OF
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT, BUT THEN REBOUNDS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST COUNTIES.
THE WINDS HAVEN'T BEEN ALL THAT CONCERNING WITH ONLY AROUND 20-30
MPH BEING OBSERVED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO PUSH SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WILL HOLD VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 03Z, THEN LIKELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FROM 03-07Z, THEN
BRINGING BACK VCSH AFTER 07Z. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AFTER 15Z, SO WILL HOLD VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
STARTING AT 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS AROUND 15-20
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 88 76 88 / 40 70 50 90
FMY 76 89 74 88 / 30 70 50 80
GIF 75 89 74 89 / 40 80 50 90
SRQ 76 89 73 87 / 50 70 50 80
BKV 72 88 71 87 / 40 70 50 90
SPG 76 86 75 86 / 40 70 60 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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