480
FXUS62 KTBW 090021
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
821 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AT LEAST TEMPORARILY OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT AT THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES, BUT ACTIVITY COULD
GENERALLY LINGER ALL NIGHT IN COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITTING ABOUT 80 TO 100 MILES OFF
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS ALONG WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY IN
NORTH FLORIDA IS BRINGING US A CLOUDY AND MUGGY DAY. ALONG THE COAST
WE COULD SEE ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BANDS
OF RAINS PUSH IN. INLAND AND SW FLORIDA HAS SEEN MORE SUNSHINE AND
SHOULD SEE A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
WE WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY AS OVERCAST SKIES AND ON AND
OFF RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. SW
FLORIDA AND INLAND AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS
SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATING BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL STILL REMAIN IN NORTH FLORIDA KEEPING OUR
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGH. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP STORMS CHANCES HIGH FOR ONE MORE DAY.
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS GOING TO BRING SOME UNSEASONABLE
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY FEW DAYS FOR
ALMOST ALL OF US. ALSO THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR AT NIGHT COULD
BRING SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60'S FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE LATE SPRING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS OR WORSE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHRA LINGERS BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN GRADUALLY EASES FOR A BIT. HOWEVER, LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRING MVFR/IFR
CIGS INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY DURING PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AS A RESULT, VCSH/VCTS IS IN PLACE FOR
ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 80 TO 100 MILES OFF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER OUR NORTHERN WATERS WILL SEE SOME HIGHER WINDS BOTH NIGHTS
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION POSSIBLE. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHER THEN AVERAGE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED TO OUR SOUTH WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY HIGH ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 87 76 88 / 60 80 60 80
FMY 76 88 76 89 / 50 80 60 80
GIF 74 89 74 89 / 60 80 50 90
SRQ 75 87 75 88 / 50 80 70 80
BKV 72 87 71 87 / 60 90 60 80
SPG 77 87 76 86 / 60 80 70 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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